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KUALA LUMPUR: The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is likely to experience a technical correction ahead of data to be released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) next week.
Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said the MPOB is expected to release production, stocks as well as export data for August with the expectation of higher stock on Sept 10, 2021.
"I expect there will be stockpiles in producing countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. Indonesia have around four million tonnes and Malaysia about 1.6 million tonnes, but demand is slow. So, it is expected to be bearish on prices,” he told Bernama.
Hence, he forecasts futures contract to trade between RM4,100 and RM4,200 per tonne.
Meanwhile, palm oil trader David Ng predicts the market to trade with a downward bias given the recent sluggishness in export demand.
Earlier this week, Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services’ data showed that Malaysia’s exports for the Aug 1-31 period fell by 15.76 per cent to 1.21 million tonnes from 1.44 million tonnes in July 2021.
Meanwhile, cargo surveyors AmSpec Malaysia and Societe Generale de Surveillance reported that exports during Aug 1-31 fell 14.62 per cent and 17.77 per cent respectively, from the preceding month.
"We locate support at RM4,150 per tonne and resistance at RM4,400 per tonne,” he said.
For the week just ended, Malaysian CPO futures saw mixed trading, taking the cue from the soybean oil market movement and concerns over weaker exports data.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, September 2021 was down RM10 to RM4,550 a tonne, October 2021 decreased RM14 to RM4,429 a tonne, November 2021 fell RM23 to RM4,310 a tonne and December 2021 was RM39 lower to RM4,211 a tonne.
Meanwhile January 2022 lost RM49 to RM4,125 a tonne and February 2022 shed RM54 to RM4,042 a tonne.
Weekly volume slipped to 235,714 lots from 292,390 lots in the previous trading week, while open interest expanded to 256,759 contracts versus 251,315 contracts previously.
The physical CPO price for September South declined by RM20 at RM4,580 a tonne on Friday. - Bernama