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PETALING JAYA: The local equity market saw a significant increase in average daily trading value (ADTV) since the Covid-19 outbreak in early-2020.

The ADTV had doubled to RM4.46bil in the past six quarters to the third quarter (Q3) of 2021, from RM2.22bil in the preceding three years, from Q2’2017 to Q1’2020.

This trend was primarily lifted by the jump in the participation of retail investors, who mobilised their funds out from fixed deposits into other instruments of investment including the stock market.

Borrowers who opted for the loan moratorium/repayment assistance, but had comfortable cash buffers, had also utilised some of their funds to invest in the stock market, pointed out CGS-CIMB Research.

As a result, the proportion of ADTV from retail investors over the total ADTV of Malaysia’s equity market had ballooned from 24.5% in 2019 to 37.7% in 2020 and 39.4% in the first half of 2021.

However, the research firm noted that the equity ADTV has been on a downtrend in the past two quarters as market sentiment turned more cautious given the spike in Covid-19 cases. This, in turn, could lead to lower Q3 of FY21 net profit for Bursa Malaysia Bhd, which operates a fully integrated exchange.

“We estimate that Bursa’ Malaysia’s net profit in Q3 likely declined by 48.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM62.5mil, the lowest since the Covid-19 outbreak started,” the research firm said in a note to clients yesterday.

This is based on the assumption that Q3’2021 equity income dwindled by about 48.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM3.02bil – the lowest level too since the outbreak of the pandemic in Q1 2020.

“This would negatively impact Bursa Malaysia’s equity income, which is the largest component of its revenue. Equity income accounted for an average of 55.5% of the group’s total revenue in the past three years,” CGS-CIMB Research pointed out.

For context, it added that the estimated steep y-o-y decline was partly due to the high base a year ago, where the group recorded an all-time high quarterly net profit of RM121.9mil in Q3 of FY20.

The research firm reiterated its “hold” call on the stock as it expected the equity ADTV to be lower in the second half of this year and in FY22.

In the longer term, it expected equity ADTV to normalise at around the RM2.5bil level.

“However, we think that Bursa Malaysia’s share price would be supported by its attractive dividend yield of 5.7% in FY21.

“Also unchanged are our FY21-23 earnings per share forecasts and target price of RM7.48, which is still pegged to a target 2022 price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8 times (one standard deviation above its five-year average),” it added.

Bursa Malaysia is slated to release its Q3 financial results towards the end of the month.

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