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aws试用账号(www.2km.me)_Insight - How should central banks manage pandexit?

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Lee Heng Guie executive director of the Socio Economic Research Centre:"We reckon that an accommodative monetary stance is still needed, but it has to be pragmatic and prudent. The rollback of monetary stimulus, including the normalisation of interest rate path must be appropriately timed. The future path of interest rate normalisation will require clear and predictable policy communication to smoothen the ride."

CENTRAL banks, after all their ultra-monetary stimulus and liquidity injection to stem the pandemic-induced economic recession in 2020, face many challenging tasks ahead as the global recovery gains traction.

While ensuring that the global recovery is sustained, central bankers have to anchor inflation expectations and address the risk of financial vulnerabilities building up.

The term pandexit refers to how and when a country or region plans on reopening their economy following a pandemic.

We reckon that an accommodative monetary stance is still needed, but it has to be pragmatic and prudent. The rollback of monetary stimulus, including the normalisation of interest rate path must be appropriately timed. The future path of interest rate normalisation will require clear and predictable policy communication to smoothen the ride.

The continued high inflation in some advanced countries and emerging countries have stirred concerns over whether the elevated price pressures will be transitory or persistent.

The Covid-19 pandemic inflicted supply constrictions, rising cost of raw materials, higher commodity prices, weak currencies, resurgent economic activity post the reopening of the economy, and supply chain disruptions had led to price pressures.Lee Heng Guie, executive director of the Socio Economic Research Centre

A combination of these factors will determine whether the cost pressures and their ensuing impact on consumer inflation will persist and stay elevated, and not transitory in nature as some factors have longer staying power than others. We caution that these factors can become persistent enough to feed into inflation expectations and create self-sustaining inflationary dynamics.

Temporary shocks/forces do not necessarily drive inflation higher unless they become embedded in the price-setting mechanism, leading to rising inflation expectations.

The return of cost-push inflation could trigger wage-price spirals, though the demand-pull inflation is not apparent at this juncture amid some pick up in wages. Historical experience suggests that inflationary episodes are generally accompanied by periods of accelerating nominal wages.

If inflation surprises on the upside and financial conditions tighten, central banks’ prompt monetary response is needed. They have to stay ahead of the curve and signal readiness to move towards normalisation of interest rates. The expectations of tighter monetary stance would trigger bouts of high volatility and tension in the markets.

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