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aws‘全’区号(www.2km.me)_Earnings rebound seen for banks next year

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The banking sector in Malaysia is expected to see a recovery in loan growth next year as the country’s economy rebounds from the Covid-19 lockdown.

PETALING JAYA: The banking sector in Malaysia is expected to see a recovery in loan growth next year as the country’s economy rebounds from the Covid-19 lockdown.

According to Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB), industry loan growth will likely improve to 4% in 2022 from the estimated growth of 3.8% for 2021.

“With the phased opening up of the economy from September, industry loan growth has continued to recover, rising 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2021, up from 2.9% y-o-y in September 2021,” the research house said.

It noted that on an annualised basis, industry loan growth stood at 3.7% y-o-y in October, led by non-household loan growth of 4.4% and annualised household loan growth of 3.2%.

According to MIDF Research, loan growth acceleration would be the key theme for the banking sector in 2022.

“We are expecting a system loan growth acceleration, premised on a loose loan-to-deposit ratio and overall general gross domestic product improvement, which may result in higher demand for loans from businesses,” it said in its Market Strategy 2022 report.MIDF said it favoured banks with strong asset quality under the assumption that they would be less affected by the gross impaired loan ratio uptick in the first half of 2022. These would include Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd (BIMB) for its good return-on-equity for a smaller sized bank, and Public Bank Bhd for its excellent cost-income ratio

Both Maybank IB and MIDF rated the banking sector as “positive”.

In its sectoral research report, Maybank said it had cut its 2022 net profit growth estimate for banks to 2.5% from 14% after imputing the impact of prosperity tax (excluding prosperity tax, the aggregate 2022 net profit growth would be 10%).

However, it noted that the prosperity tax was just a one-off event; hence, it expected the sector to see earnings rebound by 18% in 2023.

“The current valuations largely reflect the tax impact, in our view, and dividend yields are still decent at current prices,” Maybank IB said.

MIDF said there could be near-term headwinds for the banking sector, especially concerning dividend yields from the prosperity tax, uncertainty surrounding moratorium’s end and the country’s economic performance.

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