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CGS-CIMB Research has projected that spot CPO prices would range between RM4,500 and RM5,500 per tonne this month.

PETALING JAYA: Tight supply is expected to sustain crude palm oil (CPO) prices at current elevated levels in the early part of this year.

It is noted that the present heavier-than-usual rainfall in some of the palm oil regions and unresolved labour shortage at various plantations will continue to weigh on production.

In addition, the first quarter is historically a low-production season for palm oil.

Based on these circumstances, CGS-CIMB Research has projected that spot CPO prices would range between RM4,500 and RM5,500 per tonne this month.

“Palm oil supplies are likely to stay tight in the near term, given that the first quarter is typically the low-production season for palm oil.

“Malaysia is also currently experiencing heavier-than-usual rainfall in some of the palm oil regions while the current labour shortage issue remains unresolved,” it said.

As supply eases towards the latter part of the year, CGS-CIMB said CPO prices would likely average at RM3,600 per tonne in 2022, before moderating further to an average of RM3,240 per tonne next year.

Overall, it maintains a “neutral” call on the sector, citing concerns over environment, social and governance (ESG) issues.

It said ESG concerns would partly offset the impact of strong earnings and the prevailing undemanding valuations of the sector versus historical averages.

In 2021, CPO prices rose 64% year-on-year (y-o-y) to average at a new record high of RM4,407 per tonne amid tight supply of edible oils.

CGS-CIMB noted that the 2021 average CPO price came in 3% higher than its projection of RM4,270 per tonne due to weaker-than-expected supply.

In December alone, the average CPO price rose 40% y-o-y to RM5,070 per tonne.

CGS-CIMB said findings from a survey of palm oil areas by its futures team revealed that Malaysia’s CPO output probably fell 8.1% month-on-month (m-o-m), but grew 12.7% y-o-y to 1.5 million tonnes last month.

Palm oil exports, on the other hand, likely fell 5.7% m-o-m and 14.9% y-o-y to 1.38 million tonnes based on export statistics by cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services, SGS and Amspec Malaysia.

It also estimated that Malaysia’s palm oil inventory fell 3.6% m-o-m, but grew 38.5% y-o-y to 1.75 million tonnes at end-December 2021.

The industry’s official figures are scheduled to be released on Monday.

CGS-CIMB said the estimated CPO output by Malaysia at 1.5 million tonnes last month came in slightly lower when compared against the 10-year average of 1.51 million tonnes for the month of December.

“The lower estimated achievement for December 2021 output against historical production for the same month could be due to flooding in some estates due to heavier-than-usual rainfall in the last two weeks of the month and the labour shortage situation,” it explained.


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