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THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its biggest data onslaught of the year, and industry analysts are expecting relatively ho-hum results, opposite of many report outcomes in the last couple years.
Fireworks are not necessarily a guarantee despite the large number of potential revisions on the table. Not sure “but” is needed at start of sentence. On average, the corn and soy futures market’s reaction to these reports are the mildest among the four days per year when USDA publishes US quarterly stock survey results.
Last year on this date, Chicago corn futures surged more than 5%, ending limit-up after USDA chopped the 2020 US corn yield. But report day moves in the prior four Januarys were less than 1% each.
Soybean futures jumped more than 3% a year ago with further confirmation of multiyear supply lows, though like corn, the prior two years featured fractional price changes.
Most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and soybean futures on Tuesday finished a respective 22% and 1% above last year’s “report day eve.” Soybeans’ price is just about the highest ever for the date, while corn is at a nine-year high.
Analysts predict USDA’s 2021-22 US corn ending stocks at 1.472 billion bushels, down 1.4% on the month, and soybeans at 348 million bushels, up 2.4%.
Those adjustments would be relatively mild, but lighter changes have occurred, most recently in 2020.
If US stocks are not surprising, one reason could lie with recent calmness in US quarterly stocks.
The last two Dec 1 stock reports featured enormous revisions to the Sept 1 corn stocks, messing up January trade guesses for both Dec 1 and ending stocks.
But the September and June 2021 reports featured nearly negligible adjustments to the previous quarter, possibly suggesting the estimation process has come under control.
Still, traders should always be prepared for the unexpected when it comes to stocks.
US corn yield is pegged unchanged from November at a record 177 bushels per acre (bpa), while soybean yield is seen up 0.1 bpa to 51.3, the second-highest ever.
The range on corn yield guesses is decently wide, but the narrow soybean range and the recent forecast trends could set up a miss there.
USDA’s set of reports were due late yesterday, and other key numbers to watch include the drought-affected South American corn and soybean crops.
It is still relatively early in the growing season, so the agency may make smaller reductions at this stage.
The trade is looking for US winter wheat seedings at a six-year high, though if acres fall short of expectations, that frees up more area for spring crop planting.
Recent history suggests the trade is likely to miss the January US corn yield by more than one bushel per acre.
In the last decade, the trade guess was within one bpa of the actual only three times.